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Reversing marsh disappearance may be impossible

line0042Louisiana officials hoping to save the Mississippi delta’s disappearing wetlands by breaking down some levees may be fighting a losing battle, according to a paper in Nature Geoscience. Instead they may have to do coastal triage.

Over the last 12,000 years, the authors estimate that about 24 billion tons of sediment went into building and sustaining marshes in the face of natural sinking and sea level rise. Now, however, the ocean is encroaching even faster due to climate change. Not only that, but dams and diversions installed in recent decades mean that the Mississippi River has been dumping only half of sediment that it used to. Bringing all of these factors together, the authors’ model shows that, at today’s pace, land-building can’t possibly keep up with land-disappearance. An additional 4,000 square miles of wetlands could fall into the ocean before the century is up, they estimate.

While more research is always good, they write: “uncertainty should not be used to defer action to restore the delta region to a desired level of sustainability, or plan an inevitable retreat.” – Jessica Leber

Source: Blum, M.D. and H.H. Roberts. Drowning of the Mississippi Delta due to insufficient sediment supply and global sea-level rise. Nature Geoscience DOI: 10.1038/ngeo553

Image © NOAA Photo Library

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